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The Devil is in the Detail

The government is very proud of its vaccine rollout - logistically it's a marvel. But with 90% of the 99% most vulnerable already vaccinated, does any other healthy adult actually need a vaccination? If they already have a good immune system or have had COVID-19, could they be worse off getting vaccinated? How accurate is available information about vaccines?

 

Firstly to the numbers of deaths from COVID-19 to check if these are as deadly as the government claims.

 

ONS spreadsheet  below shows deaths due to COVID-19 for 2020 in England and Wales.

 

Note the bottom line which represents deaths 'due' to COVID - i.e. when COVID was the underlying cause.

 

For under 65s with no underlying health conditions, total 2020 deaths in England and Wales was - 1,549.

Deaths with a positive test are coded using the ICD10 code U0.71 and those with suspected COVID-19 with ICD10 code U0.72.

 

Those with suspected COVID-19 means no test has been conducted.

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So it would seem that deaths from COVID-19 have been greatly exaggerated to include any death where there was a COVID-19 'mention' whether any test was done or not. Anyone considering taking a vaccine should be aware of this data in order to make an informed decision. Clearly the risk in the risk vs. reward ratio is increased as people become younger.

 

Current deaths reported at the government's Yellow Card Scheme following vaccination stand at 713 (as of 6.4.2021) which may be woefully under reported as there are currently only 3-6 Yellow Card Reports per 1,000 doses because most people haven't heard of the Yellow Card Scheme.

These reports may well be far higher if it was mainly GPs administering the vaccines, but the army isn't going to know if someone goes home and dies following a vaccine.

Vaccine Risk vs. Reward by Age Group

Deaths from COVID-19 by age group

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As you can see from the above chart, the chances of dying from COVID-19 - even if you have co-morbidity(s) is 1 in 1.3M or 1 in 8M for those with no underlying health issues in the 0-10 age group and 1 in 2.5M in the 10-19 age group.  So with deaths from vaccines (in England & Wales alone) currently standing at 713 - clearly the chances of dying from the vaccine is far greater from the risk of dying from COVID-19 for anybody under 60 with no co-morbidities. Even if you get COVID-19, drugs being used by the NHS have been preventing deaths from COVID-19 since the virus first appeared.

Remember, the majority of people who lost their lives 'due' to COVID-19 last year were predominantly the over 80s. The remaining statistics that make up the 'official' COVID-19 count (the one you see on the BBC) includes those with co-morbidities, those where no COVID-19 test was carried out and those who died within 28 days of a COVID-19 test - for 'any reason' which also included road accidents.

To put it another way, for those in the 40-49 year age group, everybody taking up the vaccine would be the equivalent of 46,242 healthy people jumping off a cliff because a hungry bear is approaching. The bear can only eat one meal and will get the slowest runner. But if everybody jumps off the cliff, more will die, some will be maimed and the bear will still get a meal.

You can check out these statistics directly at the government sites below.

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